The Government’s own analysis of the economic hit to GDP from a ‘no deal’ Brexit would be 16% to North East England, Sky News can reveal.
Northern Ireland could also face a GDP slump of 12% if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
Sky News can reveal the latest figures contained in the EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing, which was controversially leaked last week.
The losses are predicted to come over 15 years.
It comes as the Cabinet tries to establish a common position on the Northern Ireland border in the crucial subcommittee meeting in Parliament on Wednesday.
In the House of Commons on Wednesday, an MP appeared to confirm the 12% number in a question to Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley.
The SNP’s Stephen Gethins asked her: “The Scottish Government analysis has shown that a ‘no deal’ scenario could cost Scotland up to 8.5% of GDP.
“Government analysis suggests that Northern Ireland could be cost up to 12% of its GDP. Does she believe any analysis she has seen? And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?”
The Northern Ireland Secretary said that the “DExEU Secretary has dealt with the issues surrounding the leaked report”.
“It is important to state that the UK Government wants to achieve a good deal for the UK that protects the economic integrity of the UK,” she added.
Sky News has further established that Northern Ireland is not the worst hit region or nation in the Government’s preliminary Brexit impact assessment.
North East England, in a ‘no deal’ situation, could face a 16% hit to GDP. Sky sources suggest an 11% hit even if a comprehensive free trade agreement is reached.
It is the only region of England with a goods trade surplus with the EU, and it also has the highest per capita EU funding of any English region.